PULSE: scheduled area assessments for security and crisis teams

A security team responsible for an overseas location needs to understand what has changed, what it means for its decisions and which judgement may need to change next. Collecting updates is part of that work. Producing a consistent, reviewed assessment is a separate task that needs a clear requirement and an accountable owner.

PULSE is AIC’s recurring area-assessment service, available now for customer demonstrations. It organises the work around a watch: a defined place, a set of intelligence questions and an agreed publication schedule. The PULSE product overview shows how watches, sources and reviewed editions fit together.

Define a watch around a decision

Begin with the decision the organisation needs to support. A travel-risk team may need a recurring assessment of conditions around a destination. A crisis team may need to understand changes affecting its people, suppliers or facilities. Define the area and the questions closely enough for the analyst to judge which developments matter.

The watch records the area, questions, intended recipients and delivery schedule. The assessment also needs an information cut-off and a clear route for revising the requirement when the situation changes. Those details keep successive editions focused on the same decision.

A good demonstration starts with a small number of questions. Ask what evidence would answer them, which uncertainty matters to the decision and how the next edition would respond to a material change.

Give every edition a usable structure

PULSE’s assessment model uses dated editions with their own identity, version and information cut-off. The structure brings together vital intelligence, answers to the requirements, key judgements, an outlook, source references and relevant limitations. The reader should be able to find the answer to the question that caused the assessment to be commissioned.

Source traceability makes that answer inspectable. A reviewer needs to distinguish a reported observation from an analytical judgement and follow the evidence supporting it. When sources disagree, the assessment should explain the effect of that disagreement on the conclusion.

The PULSE area-assessment evaluation provides an illustrative exercise using one watch, successive editions and a known evidence gap. Use it to examine requirement coverage, source inspection and the way a changed assessment is explained.

Keep likelihood, horizon and confidence separate

A judgement can be plausible while resting on limited evidence. It can also be well supported but concern an event that remains unlikely. Probability, the period being assessed and confidence in the evidence answer different questions. Combining them into one score makes the assessment harder to interpret.

PULSE uses four horizons: now, covering up to 24 hours from the information cut-off; one week; one month or more; and up to one year. Each forecast remains tied to its horizon and evidence. Where the source set cannot support a judgement, the outlook should say so.

In a demonstration, ask to examine an assessment with a weak or contradictory source base. Check how the limitation is stated and which indicators would change the judgement. The next edition should show why the assessment changed, including when the evidence strengthens an earlier conclusion or requires it to be withdrawn.

Retain a named reviewer and release decision

A named AIC analyst reviews the assessment before release. AI assists collection and drafting, while the analyst checks the judgement, sources, probability, horizon and confidence. Unresolved contradictions and unsupported judgements remain with the reviewer until they are addressed.

The release record matters after publication too. A customer should be able to identify the edition reviewed, its information cut-off and the decision authorising its release. A corrected version needs enough context for recipients to understand which assessment they should use.

CORTEX addresses the broader intelligence lifecycle, including requirements, analysis and controlled reporting. PULSE concentrates on the recurring area-assessment service. When both appear in a proposed workflow, agree the actual interface and the owner of each decision, using the Constellation architecture as the starting point.

Agree delivery and correction handling

Agree delivery through the PULSE application or an approved channel that suits the recipients. Secure links are the default for email. Include any endpoint or structured-data integration in the engagement scope, with its supported format, destination and handling restrictions recorded.

The delivery discussion should cover edition identity, handling instructions, recipient permissions and the evidence of successful delivery. It should also cover failure: a recipient loses access, a destination is unavailable or an assessment needs correction after an earlier edition has been sent.

LINC provides governed exchange for approved system-to-system flows. For PULSE edition delivery through LINC, define the edition contract, destination, permissions and acknowledgement required. Demonstrate the agreed route with representative data before it carries customer assessments.

Evaluate the service against your reporting cycle

Choose a representative area and a manageable set of questions. Agree the edition structure, source requirements, analyst review, recipients and delivery route. Then examine a complete cycle, including a changed assessment, a held release and a corrected edition. Record what the demonstrated configuration supports and what the customer engagement needs to include.

PULSE assesses places and operating environments. Its handling scope extends up to OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE; SECRET and above are excluded. Agree the applicable marking scheme, hosting, retention and recipient access for the engagement.

The commercial scope should cover cadence, assessment requirements, review, delivery and changes to the watch. The intelligence software cost guide provides a framework for comparing this with the organisation’s existing reporting work.

For a PULSE demonstration, email commercial@aicuk.ltd or contact AIC. Provide a non-sensitive outline of the area, questions, cadence and decisions the assessment needs to support. That gives AIC a concrete requirement to demonstrate and price.